Predictive Power of a Body Shape Index for Development of Diabetes, Hypertension, and Dyslipidemia in Japanese Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Recently, a body shape index (ABSI) was reported to predict all-cause mortality independently of body mass index (BMI) in Americans. This study aimed to evaluate whether ABSI is applicable to Japanese adults as a predictor for development of diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. SUBJECTS/METHODS We evaluated the predictive power of ABSI in a retrospective cohort study using annual health examination data from Chiba City Hall in Japan, for the period 2008 to 2012. Subjects included 37,581 without diabetes, 23,090 without hypertension, and 20,776 without dyslipidemia at baseline who were monitored for disease incidence for 4 years. We examined the associations of standardized ABSI, BMI, and waist circumference (WC) at baseline with disease incidence by logistic regression analyses. Furthermore, we conducted a case-matched study using the propensity score matching method. RESULTS Elevated BMI, WC, and ABSI increased the risks of diabetes and dyslipidemia [BMI-diabetes: odds ratio (OR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.20-1.32; BMI-dyslipidemia: OR = 1.15, 95%CI = 1.12-1.19; WC-diabetes: OR = 1.24, 95%CI = 1.18-1.31; WC-dyslipidemia: OR = 1.15, 95%CI = 1.11-1.19; ABSI-diabetes: OR = 1.06, 95%CI = 1.01-1.11; ABSI-dyslipidemia: OR = 1.04, 95%CI = 1.01-1.07]. Elevated BMI and WC, but not higher ABSI, also increased the risk of hypertension [BMI: OR = 1.32, 95%CI = 1.27-1.37; WC: OR = 1.22, 95%CI = 1.18-1.26; ABSI: OR = 1.00, 95%CI = 0.97-1.02]. Areas under the curve (AUCs) in regression models with ABSI were significantly smaller than in models with BMI or WC for all three diseases. In case-matched subgroups, the power of ABSI was weaker than that of BMI and WC for predicting the incidence of diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. CONCLUSIONS Compared with BMI or WC, ABSI was not a better predictor of diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia in Japanese adults.